# #Democracy:

## Analysis and Discussion from the Intersection of Internet and Politics

The Scott Brown candidacy in New Hampshire presents an interesting outlier challenge to our Facebook Forecasting Model. In fact, there is no other candidate in the history of Senate campaigns quite like Brown. Why?

Can publicly-available data from the Facebook pages of candidates for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire tell us anything about who will win come Election Day next Tuesday and in November? If what we learned during the 2012 elections is any guide, the answer may be a whole lot.

In 2012, we found that Facebook “likes” and “PTAT” metrics, when added to a model including standard forecasting fundamentals, can produce surprisingly accurate vote forecasts of campaigns for the U.S. Senate. The question remains, however, whether our results in 2012 were an anomaly or a tool to expand the statistical forecasting of election results to campaigns for Congress.

In 2012, we found that Facebook “likes” and “PTAT” metrics, when added to a model including standard forecasting fundamentals, can produce surprisingly accurate vote forecasts of campaigns for the U.S. Senate. The question remains, however, whether our results in 2012 were an anomaly or a tool to expand the statistical forecasting of election results to campaigns for Congress.