NH Senate: Shaheen Stabilizes?

Earlier this week, our colleagues at the WBZ/UMass-Amherst poll reported that the New Hampshire Senate race was now too close to call. The Cook Political Report also moved the race to the Toss Up, as in candidate stomach churning, column.

Through our regular measurements of both campaigns’ Facebook metrics, we have been tracking the ups and downs of the Shaheen-Brown contest since primary night in early September. What light does our Facebook Forecasting Model shed on the race?

As we reported at hashtagdemocracy, where we are tracking 15 different Senate races, the Shaheen-Brown contest has been steadily tightening since the first of October. Our Model’s two-week averages show Brown’s support growing from a low of 42.6% on October 1 to 50.3% on October 15th. Brown’s 50.3% total on October 15th represents the high water mark for his candidacy since we began tracking this race.

 

Two Week Averages

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NH Senate -- ALT Model

15-Oct

8-Oct

1-Oct

24-Sep

17-Sep

10-Sep

Shaheen -- D

49.72

53.86

57.40

53.07

52.36

52.33

Brown -- R

50.28

46.14

42.60

46.93

47.64

47.67

But, in the gut-wrenching world of campaign time, October 15th was years ago. The latest forecast from our model, based on data gathered from Facebook on October 22nd, indicates that Brown’s growth has halted and Shaheen has regained her footing. Our forecast now shows Shaheen leading Brown 51.1% to 48.9%.

As the WBZ/Umass poll reported, the race for the New Hampshire Senate is very close. But, according to our tracking of Facebook social media metrics since the poll was fielded, the momentum appears to have shifted back – slightly -- to Senator Shaheen.