Facebook Metrics Predict Scott Brown Primary Win

Can publicly-available data from the Facebook pages of candidates for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire tell us anything about who will win come Election Day next Tuesday and in November? If what we learned during the 2012 elections is any guide, the answer may be a whole lot.

In a 2012 post-election analysis for Politico, we reported that eight out of nine toss-up Senate races were won by the candidate with the more engaged (PTAT) Facebook fan base. And in the 2012 House elections, 20 of the 33 most competitive races across the country were won by the candidate with a measurable Facebook fan engagement advantage.

For example, while then Senator Scott Brown had marginally more Facebook fans than Elizabeth Warren heading into Election Day 2012, Warren’s campaign did a superior job of engaging her fan base. Thirty-two percent of Warren’s Facebook fans – over 100,000 people — were liking, commenting, and sharing news about her campaign on Election Day. On the other hand, just 12 percent of Scott Brown’s network — about 45,000 people – were engaged with his campaign, as measured through Facebook’s PTAT...

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