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Facebook Forecast Fundamentals

In 2012, we found that Facebook “likes” and “PTAT” metrics, when added to a model including standard forecasting fundamentals, can produce surprisingly accurate vote forecasts of campaigns for the U.S. Senate.  The question remains, however, whether our results in 2012 were an anomaly or a tool to expand the statistical forecasting of election results to campaigns for Congress.

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Forecasting 2014 Senate Races

In 2012, we found that Facebook “likes” and “PTAT” metrics, when added to a model including standard forecasting fundamentals, can produce surprisingly accurate vote forecasts of campaigns for the U.S. Senate.  The question remains, however, whether our results in 2012 were an anomaly or a tool to expand the statistical forecasting of election results to campaigns for Congress.

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